Big Pots On the River
Pots often grow quite large by the river, particularly when there has been a raise before the flop. This can cause a lot of players to marry the pot (stay in the pot because of its size even though they really shouldn’t be involved). Now if the flop brings a four flush or straight draw to your opponents, you can be certain they’ll be there to the river.
If the straight or flush cards fail to come, a bet will most likely drop all of the opponents who were trailing along, hoping to make their straight or flush. Often there are only two or three opponents contesting a very large pot on the river.
You might be in there with second pair, or perhaps top pair with a marginal kicker, and your opponent comes out betting. You’re holding a hand you’d throw away if the pot were small, but with all that money in it, what should you do? Suppose you’re playing in a $3-$6 hold’em game and the pot is $90 by the time you reach the river. If your opponent bets, the pot now contains $96. It is offering you 16-to-1 on your money. If you call and are beaten it will only cost you that additional $6. If you throw your hand away and your opponent was bluffing, you made a $96 mistake.
The answer ought to be obvious. If you believe this to be a situation in which your opponent would bluff more than one time in 16, go ahead and call. Only if you are sure your opponent would almost never bluff, can you comfortably throw your hand away.
Generally you’re always better off committing the small error of calling with a losing hand, than the catastrophic error of folding a winner. In the situation cited above, even if your opponent would only bluff one time in ten, you are far better off calling than folding.
If you were to call ten times, you’d lose $6 on nine occasions, for a loss of $54. On the tenth occasion, you’d win a $96 pot, for a net profit of $42. If you divide that $42 profit by each of the ten times you called, your decision to call is worth $4.20 each time you make it — regardless of whether you win that particular pot.
If you are second to act, and think there’s some chance you have the best hand, even if you don’t consider yourself the favorite, you might want to raise if your opponent comes out betting. By doing this, you may get the third opponent to lay down his hand. If your first opponent came out betting a fairly weak hand in hopes that you might fold, he, in turn, may now fold if he suspects you’re holding a powerhouse. A play like this also adds some deception to your game. But like all deceptive plays, you have to use it sparingly.
Overcalling On the River
Occasionally you’ll be last to act against two or more opponents on the river. If one bets and the other calls, what should you do? With a bet and call in front of you, you’ll have to credit at least one of your opponents with a legitimate hand.
While the first player might have been bluffing, the second player could not call unless he had a legitimate hand. While it is possible, although somewhat remote, that he could bluff-raise, there is just no reason to call unless you have a hand that figures to win the pot.
Consequently, you’ll need a hand strong enough to beat a legitimate calling hand in order to overcall. If you had a hand you would have raised with had there been no caller, then you should definitely overcall. But if you have a hand which beats a bluff, but not much else, you’ll save money in the long run by not overcalling in these situations.
Many players make a big mistake by overcalling when they know they’re beaten. Consistently making crying overcalls can be costly. Unless you have a hand which is better than a calling hand, save your money for other opportunities.
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November 3, 2008
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